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Forty years of‘rigorous observational positivism Jaime Marquez, Federal Reserve Board 1

An autobiographical research commentary Lawrence R. Klein 8

PART Ⅰ ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY 41

1 Pitfalls in the statistical determination of the investment schedule 41

2 The efficiency of estimation in econometric models 64

3 The estimation of distributed lags 88

4 Singularity in the equation systems of econometrics:some aspects of the problem of multicollinearity 109

5 On the interpretation of Theil s method of estimating economic relationships 150

6 Dynamic properties of nonlinear econometric models 161

7 Dynamic analysis of economic systems 198

8 Comments on Sargent and Sims ‘Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory 238

9 Estimation of distributed lags 249

PART Ⅱ ECONOMIC THEORY 281

10 Macroeconomics and the theory of rational behavior 281

11 Remarks on the theory of aggregation 303

12 Theories of effective demand and employment 320

13 Stock and flow analysis in economics 377

14 The use of econometric models as a guide to economic policy 388

15 A constant-utility index of the cost of living 434

16 On the interpretation of Professor Leontief s system 443

17 Some econometrics of growth:great ratios of economics 455

PART Ⅲ APPLIED ECONOMETRICS 495

18 Some econometrics of the determination of absolute prices and wages 495

19 Some new results in the measurement of capacity utilization 531

20 Nonlinear estimation of aggregate production functions 570

21 Whither econometrics? 618

22 Notes on testing the predictive performance of econometric models 643

23 Money in the Wharton Quarterly Model 680

24 Money in a general equilibrium system:empirical aspects of the quantity theory 719

25 Direct estimates of unemployment rate and capacity utilization in macroeconometric models 734

26 The supply side 765

27 Stochastic nonlinear models 783

PART Ⅳ PUBLIC POLICY 805

28 A post mortem on transition predictions of national product 805

29 Supply constraints in demand-oriented systems:an interpretation of the oil crisis 850

30 Five-year experience of linking national econometric models and of forecasting international trade 871

Index 911