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1. Criminal Career Research, Mathematical Models, and Testing Quantitative Predictions from Theories 1

Background 1

Blumstein and Cohen (1979) 2

The National Academy Panel 4

Explaining the Growth in Recidivism Probabilities 6

Explaining the Individual Offending Frequency 11

Objections to Criminal Career Research 14

Criminal Career Research in the Last 20 Years 17

Aims of this Book 18

Methodological Notes 20

2. An Analysis of the Offenders Index 23

Sources of Data 23

Recidivism 26

Reconviction Rate 34

Reconciling the Risk and Rate Categories 39

Gender 40

Is Criminality Constant over the Cohorts? 43

3. The Theory and a Simple Model 47

Orientation 47

Introduction 47

The Assumptions of our Theory 49

Explaining the Age-Crime Curve 50

The Rise in Crime from 10 to 17 Years of Age 56

Modelling the Age-Crime Curve 59

The 100,000 Active Prolific Offenders 68

Corollaries and Comments 70

Conclusion 73

4. Criminal Careers of Serious, Less Serious, and Trivial Offenders 75

Orientation 75

Introduction 75

Offenders with Custody at First Court Appearance 76

Custody Rates 78

Serious Offenders 79

Less Serious Offenders 81

Serious Offences 82

Simplified Modelling of Convictions for Serious Offences 83

Simplified Modelling of all Convictions 88

Versatility or Specialization in Offending 90

Trivial Offenders 98

Conclusion 105

5. Is Age the Primary Influence on Offending? 107

Orientation 107

Introduction 107

Possible Types of Age Dependence 109

Testing the Theories 111

Conclusion 119

6. Characteristics of Individuals 123

Orientation 123

Introduction 123

The Rationale and Development of OASys 124

Analysis of the Pilot OASys Data 128

The Distribution of Section 11 Scores 131

Is there Structure in the Section 11 Information in OASys? 138

Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Section 11 Questions 140

Conclusions from the OASys Pilot Data Analysis 142

Analysis of Operational OASys Data 144

Analysis of April 2004 PNC Conviction Data 149

Conclusions 154

7. Applications for Managing the Criminal Justice System 155

Orientation 155

Introduction 155

The Flow Model 156

Predicting the Prison Population 158

The DNA Database 164

Conclusion 167

8. Criminal Policy Implications 169

Orientation 169

Introduction 169

Overview of the Theory 169

The Categories 170

Areas where Policy could Influence Crime 172

Childhood Early Interventions 173

Early Career Interventions 174

Increasing the Efficiency of Conviction 175

Offender Treatment Programmes 176

Prolific and other Priority Offenders 176

Implications and Uses of the Theory 180

Frequently Asked Questions 184

9. Summary and Conclusions 187

Summary 187

The Origin of the Offender Categories 197

Criminality 198

Recidivism 199

Conviction Rate λ 200

The Effects of Formal Warnings and Cautions 201

The Criminal Career Debate 203

Conclusions 208

Appendix: Mathematical Notes 211

Introduction 211

Constant Probability Systems 212

Allocation of Offenders to the Risk/Rate Categories 215

An Alternative Modelling Approach 217

Incapacitation 219

Steady State Solutions 223

Estimating the Active Offender Population Size 226

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Recidivism Parameters 227

Bibliography 231

Index 243