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PART I. Sino-American Strategic Relations 1

1. INTRODUCTION 2

2. THE NATIONAL POWER OF THE PRC 12

Geography 12

Military Capabilities 13

Economy 14

Sociopsychology 18

Leadership 18

3. SINO-SOVIET RELATIONS 22

The Sino-Soviet Split 23

U.S.-Soviet Balance of Power in East Asia 40

Soviet Strategic Perceptions 43

Korea and Japan 49

Soviet Statements on U.S.-PRC Relations 53

4. CHINA'S INDEPENDENT FOREIGN POLICY 58

Normalization of Sino-Soviet Relations 63

Future Sino-Soviet Relations 75

5. PARAMETERS OF SINO-AMERICAN STRATEGIC COOPERATION 77

The Soviet Card 77

Sino-American Military Cooperation 80

PRC Rejection of Close Military Ties 85

Future Sino-American Strategic Cooperation 87

PART II. The Role of Taiwan 89

6. TAIWAN TODAY: AN OVERVIEW 91

Background 91

Economic Conditions 96

Political System 102

Recent Political Developments 105

Foreign Policy 110

The Importance of Taiwan 116

7. THE SECURITY OF TAIWAN 122

PRC Military Threat 123

PRC Intentions 130

Taiwan's Reunification Policy 148

8. THE TAIWAN ISSUE 153

The Shanghai Communiqué 153

Normalization of Sino-American Relations 156

The Taiwan Relations Act 160

The Mid-1980 Turning Point 164

China Becomes Inflexible 173

9. PERIOD OF CONTENTION: 1981-1982 178

The FX Decision 182

The Arms Sales Controversy 191

10. THE AUGUST 17, 1982 JOINT COMMUNIQUE 202

Provisions 205

U.S. Interpretations 208

PRC Interpretations 213

Relations in the Post-Communiqué Period 215

11. EPILOGUE 219

A More Realistic China Policy 219

Relations Sour Once Again 223

Sale of High Technology to the PRC 228

Exchange Visits of Premier Zhao Ziyang and President Reagan 230

PART III. Conclusion 237

12. SUMMARY AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 238

Limits of Sino-American Strategic Cooperation 238

The Taiwan Question 242

Taiwan as a Variable in Sino-American Strategic Relations 246

Policy Implications 248

APPENDIXES 251

SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY 278