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PART I. UNDERSTANDING DISASTER 1

Chapter 1. Overview 3

The Question 5

Unacceptable Damage 6

Acceptability-A Broader View 8

A Flawed Approach 11

Focus of the Book 14

Notes 15

Chapter 2. The Physical Effects of Nuclear Weapons 17

Description 18

Notes 30

PART II. LIMITED NUCLEAR WAR: MILITARY TARGETS 33

Chapter 3. National Consequences 35

The Concept 35

An Attack Scenario 39

Casualties 41

Economic Impacts 48

Food Supply and Distribution 50

Medical Implications 62

Political and Social Implications 65

Perspective 75

Notes 78

Chapter 4. Massachusetts: A Case Study 83

Casualties 83

Economic Impacts 85

Food Supply and Distribution 86

Electricity and Fuel Oil 87

Medical Care 88

Social Impacts 88

Perspective 89

Notes 90

PART III. FULL-SCALE NUCLEAR WAR: CIVILIAN TARGETS 91

Chapter 5. National Economic and Population Damage 93

Methodology 93

Industrial Destruction and Casualties 102

Population Losses 118

Post-Attack Economic Recovery 133

Perspective 137

Notes 138

Chapter 6. A Widening Gyre: Food, Energy, Medical Care, and Higher Education 143

Food Production 143

Energy 161

Medical Care 172

Higher Education 179

Perspective 183

Notes 188

Chapter 7. Slouching Toward Bethlehem: Psychological, Social, Political, and Institutional Effects 191

Differing Effects of Large- and Small-Scale Disasters 193

Nuclear and Conventional Bombing: Contrast and Similarities 197

Psychological Effects of Nuclear War 200

Social Disorganization and Strategic Warfare 207

Antagonism and Hostility 221

Disruption of Political Authority 223

Evacuation-Lessons to be Learned 230

Long-Term Social Costs: A Changing Mind-Set 238

Perspective 239

Notes 241

Chapter 8. Massachusetts: Regional Effects 245

Casualties 250

Economic Impacts 259

Food Production 261

Energy Supply 267

Medical Care 278

Higher Education 285

Perspective 285

Notes 287

Chapter 9. Evacuation: Can the Center Hold? 291

Economic Effects 293

Social Disruption 301

Ethical Choices 303

Evacuation and Preparedness 304

Perspective 306

Notes 307

Chapter 10. Vulnerability of the Soviet Union 309

Effective U.S. Retaliation 317

Selected Attacks 326

Civil Defense Effectiveness 333

Perspective 339

Notes 339

PART IV. SUMMARY 343

Chapter 11. Epilogue as Prologue: Some Observations 345

Prologue 353

Notes 358

APPENDIXES 359

Appendix A. Three Mile Island: A Contemporary Case Study 361

The Setting 362

Evacuation 362

Distrust 364

Demands on Society 366

Psychological Impacts 369

Nuclear Imagery 371

Perspective 372

Notes 375

Appendix B. U.S. Urban Population Vulnerability 377

Section A-Vulnerability of Urban Areas to Nuclear Attack 377

Section B-Nationwide Urban Fatalities from Different Nuclear Attacks 379

Index 413