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Part I The 1984 Presidential Election Contest 1

I The Nomination Struggle 13

The Republicans 13

The Democrats 14

The Rules 17

Surviving 21

The Mondale-Hart Race 24

Jesse Jackson's Candidacy 39

Choosing the Running Mate 42

The Lessons of the 1984 Nomination Campaign 43

2 The General Election Campaign 49

Candidates' Perceptions and Strategy Choices 50

From the Conventions to the First Debate 52

The Presidential Debates: The Rise and Demise of Walter Mondale 57

The End Game: How Big a Victory? 60

Did the Campaign Matter? 61

3 The Election Results 67

The Pattern of Results 70

State-by-State Results 75

Conclusion 85

Part II Voting Behavior in the 1984 Presidentiial Election 91

4 Who Voted 99

Turnout between 1824 and 1916 99

Turnout between 1920 and 1984 102

Turnout among Social Groups 107

Why Has Turnout Declined? 114

Does Low Turnout Matter? 119

5 Social Forces and the Vote 133

How Social Groups Voted in 1984 134

How Social Groups Voted during the Postwar Years 142

Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down 156

6 Issues, Candidates, and Voter Choice 163

Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations 164

The Concerns of the Electorate 165

Issue Positions and Perceptions 168

Issue Voting Criteria 172

Apparent Issue Voting in 1984 176

7 Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice 187

What Is "Retrospective" Voting? 187

Evaluations of Governmental Performance 190

Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent 193

Other Itetn,slwctive Evaluations 197

Evaluations of the Incumbent 198

The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations 199

8 Party Loyalties, Policy Preferences, Performance Evaluations, and the Vote 207

Party Identification: The Standard View 207

Party Identification: An Alternative View 208

Party htentffication in the Electorate 209

Party Identification and the Vote 214

Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations 216

Conclusion 225

Part III The 1984 Congressional Election 229

9 Candidates and Outcomes 233

Election Outcomes in 1984 234

Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes 239

The 1984 Election: The Impact on Congress 248

The 1986 Congressional Election and Beyond 251

10 The Congressional Electorate 263

Social Forces and the Congressional Vote 263

Issues and the Congressional Vote 264

Party Identification and the Congressional Vote 267

Incumbency and the Congressional Vote 269

The Congressional Vote as a Referendum 270

Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote 273

Incumbency and Candidate Resources Revisited 274

Conclusion 276

Part IV The 1984 Elections in Perspective 279

II The 1984 Elections and the Future of American Politics 281

Policy Consequences of the 1984 Elections 283

Toward Realignment? 286

Continued Republican Dominance 287

A Resurgent Democratic Party 292

A New Political Party 295

Future Electoral Volatility 299

Part V 1986 Election Update 307

12 The 1986 Congressional Election 311

The Pattern of Outcomes 311

Assessing Victory and Explaining the Pattern 314

Congressional Campaigns: National or Local? 319

Parties, PACs, and Money in the Congressional Races 325

The 1986 Election: The Impact on Congress 330

13 1988 and Beyond 335

Delegate Selection Changes 336

1988 Presidential Candidates 340

Waning Republican Prospects 346

Conclusion 354

Suggested Readings 359

Index 369