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TABLE OF CONTENTS 1

Chapter 1 Earthquake Prediction 1

Ⅰ．High-Priority Precursor Regions 2

A．Seismic Gaps for Large and Great Earthquakes 2

B．Linear Migration of Large Earthquakes 5

C．Seismic Gaps for Minor and Moderate Earthquake Predictions 7

D．Pattern Recognition 8

Ⅱ．Earthquake Precursors 9

A．Fault Creep 9

B．Foregoing Seismic Activity 10

C．Vertical Crustal Deformation 13

D．Electrical Resistivity 18

E．Tectonomagnetic Effects 20

F．Radon Emanation 23

G．Ground Water Changes 25

H．Seismic Wave Anomalies 30

I．Anomalous Animal Behavior 38

J．Multiple Precursor Observations 40

Ⅲ．Earthquake Precursor Models 43

A．Dilatancy Models 44

B．Premonitory Fault Creep Model 47

C．Propagating Deformation Front Model 48

A．Japan 49

Ⅳ．Earthquake Prediction Programs 49

B．Soviet Union 51

C．People's Republic of China 53

D．United States 56

Ⅴ．Future Prospects 57

Chapter 2 Earthquake Control 59

Ⅰ．Introduction 59

Ⅱ．Underground Nuclear Explosions 59

Ⅲ．Fluid Injection v 59

A．Denver Earthquakes 60

B．Rangely Oil Field,Colorado Earthquakes 62

Ⅳ．Future Prospects 68

C．Matsushiro,Japan Earthquakes 68

D．Dale,New York and Los Angeles Earthquakes 68

Chapter 3 Earthquake-Resistant Provisions for Structures 73

Ⅰ．Introduction 73

Ⅱ．Lateral Earthquake Forces 73

A．Types of Structures and Structural Materials 74

B．Important Principles for Safe Building Design 76

Ⅲ．U．S．Seismic Code Provisions 77

A．Historical Development of Seismic Regulations 78

Ⅳ．Uniform Building Code—Lateral Design Provisions 81

A．Minimum Earthquake Forces for Structures—Equivalent Static Analysis 81

1．Z or Seismic Risk Zone Factor 82

2．I or Occupancy Importance Factor 84

3．K or Framing Factor 84

4．C or Flexibility Factor 85

5．S or Site-Structure Resonance Factor 86

6．W or Weight Factor 87

7．Recent Changes in the Base Shear Equation 87

B．Distribution of the Total Lateral Force 87

C．Lateral Force on Elements of Structures—Equivalent Static Analysis 87

D．Minimum Earthquake Forces for Structures and Distribution of Lateral Forces—Dynamic Analysis Method 88

E．A Sampling of Additional UBC Seismic Provisions 91

F．UBC Quality and Design Specifications 92

Ⅴ．Specialized Seismic Provisions 93

A．California Public School and Hospital Buildings 94

B．Rehabilitation of Unreinforced Buildings—Long Beach,California 99

C．Rehabilitation of Existing Parapets and Appendages 101

D．Fault Easements—Portola Valley,California 102

E．Seismic Regulations for Nuclear Power Plants 103

Chapter 4 Building and Lifeline Responses to Earthquakes 105

Ⅰ．Introduction 105

Ⅱ．Building Responses to Ground Motion 105

Ⅲ．Post-Earthquake Damage Surveys 109

A．July 21,1952 Kern County,California Earthquake 109

B．March 27,1964 Alaskan Earthquake 112

C．February 9,1971 San Fernando,California Earthquake 117

1．Modern Lightweight Industrial and Commercial Buildings 119

2．Modern High-Rise Buildings 121

3．Public School Buildings 123

4．Unreinforced Masonry Buildings 123

5．Wood-Frame Dwellings 127

6．Mobile Homes 130

7．Nonstructural or Architectural Damage 131

8．Earthquake Damage Repairs 133

D．April 10,1972 Fars Province,Iran Earthquake 134

E．September 6,1975 Lice,Turkey Earthquake 137

Ⅳ．Lifeline Responses to Earthquake Hazards 142

1．Energy and Communication Systems 144

A．Lifeline Performance—February 9,1971 San Fernando,California 144

Earthquake 144

2．Water Supplyand Sewerage Systems 147

3．Transportation Systems 152

B．Advances in Antiseismic Lifeline Engineering 155

Ⅴ．Additional Damage Surveys for Contemporary Earthquakes 156

Ⅵ．Post-Earthquake Damage Surveys 156

Ⅶ．Dynamic Analysis of Existing Structures and Foundation Materials 157

A．Transient Excitations by Natural Earthquakes and Explosions 157

B．Man-Excited Vibrations 166

Index 171