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Part 1. The 1988 Presidential Election Contest 1

1. The Nomination Struggle 11

Who Ran 13

The Rules 15

The Campaigns 21

The Conventions and the Running Mates 33

Lessons of the Nomination Campaigns 36

2. The General Election Campaign 41

Candidates' Perceptions and Strategic Choices 42

From the Conventions to the Debates 44

The Debates: Lost Opportunities for Dukakis 47

The End Game: Dukakis Finds a Message 50

Did the Campaign Matter? 51

3. The Election Results 57

The Pattern of Results 60

State-by-State Results 66

Conclusion 76

Part 2. Voting Behavior in the 1988 Presidential Election 81

4. Who Voted 87

Turnout Between 1828 and 1916 87

Turnout Between 1920 and 1988 90

Turnout Among Social Groups 95

Why Has Turnout Declined? 102

Does Low Turnout Matter? 108

5. Social Forces and the Vote 121

How Social Groups Voted in 1988 122

How Social Groups Voted During the Postwar Years 131

Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down 144

6. Issues, Candidates, and Voter Choice 153

Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations 154

The Concerns of the Electorate 156

Issue Positions and Perceptions 158

Issue Voting Criteria 163

Apparent Issue Voting in 1988 166

Conclusion 173

7. Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice 179

What Is "Retrospective" Voting? 179

Evaluations of Governmental Performance 183

Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent 186

Other Retrospective Evaluations 191

Evaluations of the Incumbent 192

The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations 193

8. Party Loyalties, Policy, Preferences, Performance Evaluations, and the Vote 201

Party Identification: The Standard View 201

Party Identification: An Alternative View 202

Party Identification in the Electorate 203

Party Identification and the Vote 210

Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations 212

Conclusion 221

Part 3. The 1988 Congressional Election 227

9. Candidates and Outcomes 231

Election Outcomes in 1988 232

Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes 238

The 1988 Election: The Impact of Congress 247

The 1990 Congressional Election and Beyond 249

10. The Congressional Electorate 263

Social Forces and the Congressional Vote 263

Issues and the Congressional Vote 264

Party Identification and the Congressional Vote 267

Incumbency and the Congressional Vote 268

The Congressional Vote as a Referendum 270

Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote 272

Incumbency and Candidate Resources Revisited 275

Conclusion 277

Part 4. The 1988 Elections in Perspective 281

11. The 1988 Elections and the Future of American Politics 283

Divided Government 285

Continued Republican Dominance 290

A Resurgent Democratic Party 293

A New Political Party 295

A Return to Electoral Volatility 300

Suggested Readings 305

Index 311