执行WTO规则对中国乳业经济的影响 （英文版）ECONOMIC EFFECT ON CHINA’S DAIRY INDUSTRY OF IMPLEMENTATION OF WTO RULESpdf电子书版本下载

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Introduction 1

1.1 Objectives 1

Chapter Ⅰ 1

1.2 Background 2

1.3 Review of Previous Studies 3

1.4 Scope of this Study 6

1.5 Structure of the Report 7

Tables 7

1-1 Milk Equivalent 7

Chapter Ⅱ 8

Dairy Production in China 8

2.1 Raw Milk Production 8

2.1.1 Introduction 8

Figures 9

2-2 Milk Production by Species 9

2-1 China's Milk Production 9

2-1 World Milk Production,1998 10

2.1.2 Production Structure 10

2-3 Milk Animals in China,1988 11

2.1.3 Regional Distribution 11

2-4 Regional Distribution of Raw Milk Production in China,1998 12

2.2.1 Overview 13

2.2 Dairy Processing Industry 13

2-6 Regional Distribution of Dairy Processing 14

2-5 Milk Utilization in China 14

2.2.2 Current Situation 15

2-2 Output of Processed Dairy Products 15

2.2.3 Processing Enterprises 16

2.3 Production Cost of Raw Milk 17

2.4 Price of Dairy Products 18

2.4.1 Purchasing Price of Raw Milk 18

2-7 Composition of Production Cost 18

2.4.2 Delivery Price of Processed Dairy Products 19

2-8 Purchasing Prices of Raw Milk in Different Regions 19

2-9 Delivery Price of Dairy Products in China 20

3.1 Overview 21

3.1.1 Amount of Consumption 21

Chapter Ⅲ 21

Dairy Consumption in China 21

3-1 Total Dairy Consumption in China 22

3-2 Annual Per Capita Dairy Consumption in China 23

3-1 Annual Per Capita Dairy Consumption in Different Regions of the World 23

3.1.2 Features of Consumption 23

3-2 Dairy Consumption of Households 24

3-3 Per Capita Dairy Expenditure of Urban Households 25

3-3 Dairy Consumption of Rural Household 25

3.2 Factors Affecting Dairy Consumption 26

3.2.1 Price 26

3-4 Demand Elasticity of Dairy Products 27

3.2.2 Income 27

3-6 Income Elasticity of Various Dairy Products 28

3-5 Per Capita Expenditure of Households by Monthly Income 28

3.2.3 Tastes 29

3-4 Dairy Consumption Composition,1998 29

3.2.4 Age 30

3-7 Monthly Per Capita Dairy Consumption by Age 30

3-5 Per Capita Dairy Consumption of Urban Households by Regions,1998 31

3.2.5 Region 31

3.3 Consumption Trends 32

3.4 Conclusions 34

4.1 Overview 36

Trade of Dairy Products in China 36

Chapter Ⅳ 36

4-1 China's Dairy Commodities Detailed Catalogue 37

4-1 China Dairy Trade 37

4.2 Commodity Mix of Trade 37

4-2 Import Share of Dairy Products,1996～1 998 Average 39

4-3 Export Share of Dairy Products,1996～1998 Average 39

4.3.1 Non-concentrated Milk(0401) 40

4.3 Markets of Foreign Trade 40

4-4 Non-concentrated Milk Export Share,1996～1998 Average 40

4-5 Non-concentrated Milk Import Share,1996～1998 Average 41

4.3.2 Solid Milk and Cream(0402) 41

4-6 Solid Concentrated Milk Export Share,1996～1998 Average 42

4-7 Solid Concentrated Milk Import Share,1996～1998 Average 42

4.3.3 Yogurt and Fermented Milk and Cream(0403) 42

4-8 Yogurt and Fermented Products Import Share,1996～1998 Average 43

4.3.4 Whey and Natural Dairy Products(0404) 43

4-9 Whey and Natural Dairy Products Export Share,1996～1998 Average 44

4-10 Whey and Natural Dairy Products Import Share,1996～1998 Average 44

4.3.5 Butter and Dairy Spread(0405) 44

4-11 Butter and Dairy Spread Import Share,1996～1998 Average 45

4-12 Cheese and Curd Import Share,1996～1998 Average 45

4.3.6 Cheese and Curd(0406) 45

Dairy Policies in China 47

5.1 Domestic Supporting Policies 47

5.1.1 Background 47

Chapter Ⅴ 47

5.1.2 Reforming Operational Regime 48

5.1.3 Regional Development Policies of Milk Animals 49

5.1.4 Feedings Provision Policies 51

5.1.5 Price Policy 52

5.1.6 Scientific Research Policy 53

5.1.7 Technical Extension Systems 55

5.2 Administrative System 56

5.3 Processing and Marketing Policies 57

5.4 Trade Policy 59

5-1 China's Tariff Rate on Dairy Import 60

6.1.1 Dairy Production 62

6.1 Dairy Production,Consumption and Trade of World 62

Trade Liberalization in the World Dairy Sector 62

Chapter Ⅵ 62

6-1 World Raw Milk Production by Species 63

6-2 World Raw Milk Production 63

6.1.2 Dairy Consumption 64

6.1.3 International Trade of Dairy Products 64

6-3 World Dairy Export Share,1994 1996 Average 65

6-4 World Dairy Import Share,1994～1996 Average 66

6.2 International Dairy Policies 66

6.2.1 EU 67

6-1 Intervention/Target Price of Milk and Milk Products in EU 69

6.2.2 The United States 70

6.2.4 Australia and New Zealand 71

6.2.3 Canada 71

6.3 Trade Liberalization of World Dairy Sector 72

6-2 Prices Stipulated in the International Dairy Arrangement 73

6.3.1 WTO Agreement on Agriculture 73

6-3 Agriculture Protection Reduction Enshrined in AoA 74

6.3.2 Liberalization of Dairy Industry under WTO 74

6-4 TRQ Commitment for WTO members under the URA 75

6-5 EU Commitment on Export Subsidies of Dairy Products 76

6.3.3 Liberalization of Dairy Sector under Regional Agreement 76

7.1.2 Policy variables 78

Chapter Ⅶ 78

CATP Model 78

7.1 Description of CATP Model 78

7.1.1 Objectives 78

7.1.3 Rationale 79

7-1 Products and Regional Coverage of CATP Model 81

7-1 Rationale of CATP Model 82

7.2 Demand Model 83

7.2.1 Food Demand Model 83

7.2.2 Feed Grain Demand Model 85

7.3 Supply Model 86

7.3.1 Supply Model of Crop Products 86

7.3.2 Supply Model of Husbandry and Aquatic Production 88

7.4 Trade Model 88

7.5 Equilibrium Model 89

7.6 Date Sources 89

7.7 Limitations of the CATP Model 91

Chapter Ⅷ 93

The Impact of China's Accession into WTO on Its Dairy Sector 93

8.1.1 Tariff Reduction of Agricultural Products 93

8.1 China's WTO Accession Negotiations on Agriculture 93

8.1.2 TRQ Administration in China 94

8.2 Major Assumptions 94

8.3 Scenarios 96

8-1 Tariff Reduction Commitment of Dairy Products Made by China 96

8-2 Scenarios Design 98

8.4 Simulation Results 99

8-2 The Impact on Dairy Production Value 100

8-1 The Impact on Dairy Production 100

8-3 The Impact on Dairy Producer Price 101

8-4 The Impact on Dairy Consumer Price 102

8-7 The Impact on Per Capita Dairy Consumption of Rural Households 103

8-6 The Impact on Per Capita Dairy Consumption of Urban Households 103

8-5 The Impact on Total Dairy Consumption 103

8-8 The Impact on Net Dairy Import 104

8-9 The Impact on Dairy Import 105

8-10 The Impact on Dairy Export 105

8-3 Impact of Trade Liberalization on China's Dairy Industry 106

8-4 Prospects of China's Dairy Production,Consumption and Trade under Different Scenarios 107

8-5 Growth Rate of China's Dairy Production,Consumption and Trade 108

Chapter Ⅸ 109

Conclusions and Recommendations 109

9.1 Conclusions 109

9.2 Policy Recommendations 112

Bibliography 115

Appendix Ⅰ:Survey on Dairy Consumption 121

A1-1 Regional and Provincial Distribution of Samples 124

A1-2 Distributions of Samples among Cities in China 124

A1-3 Monthly Income of Sampled Households in the Eight Cities 125

A1-4 Age Distribution of Sampled Households'Members 126

A1-5 Profession Distribution of the Sampled Households Masters 126

A1-6 Education Distribution of Female Masters of Sampled Households 127

A2-1 Demand Elasticity of Chinese Urban Household for Agricultural Products,1998 128

Appendix Ⅱ:Data of CATP Model 128

A2-2 Demand Elasticity of Chinese Rural Household for Agricultural Products,1998 129

A2-3 Predict of Dairy Producer's Consumer's Price of China 130

Appendix Ⅲ:The Sensitivity Testing of Dairy Consumption Estimation 131

A3-1 Sensitivity Testing of Dairy Consumption in Baseline Scenario 133

A3-2 Sensitivity Testing of Dairy Consumption in WTO Ⅰ Scenario 135

A3-3 Sensitivity Testing of Dairy Consumption in WTO Ⅱ Scenario 137

Appendix Ⅳ:The World Dairy Sector-Impact of Trade Reforms 139

A4-1 Regional Aggregation of the GTAP Database 142

A4-2 Projection Rates 1995～2005,Percentage Change 144

A4-3 Income Elasticity for Selected Countries/Regions 145

A4-4 World Market Prices(Export Price Index) 147

A4-5 Production of Dairy Products 148

A4-6 Import of Dairy Products by Region 150

A4-7 Effect on Welfare(Equivalent Variation) 152

Appendix Ⅴ:Trade of Dairy Products in China 155

A5-1 Import of Dairy Products,1991～1998 155

A5-2 Export of Dairy Products,1991～1998 157

Appendix Ⅵ:Dairy Production in China 158

A6-1 Milk Output of China by Province 158