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Part Ⅰ General Investigation on the Risk of Fiscal Deficit 1

Chapter 1 Fiscal Deficit and Fiscal Deficit Risk 3

1.1 The Definition and Structure of Fiscal Deficit 3

1.2 Fiscal Deficit Risk 12

Chapter 2 Formation Mechanism of Fiscal Deficit Risk 19

2.1 Factors in Mechanism of Fiscal Deficit Risk 19

2.2 The Formation and Increase of Fiscal Deficit 22

2.3 The Formation of Inflation Risk Caused by Fiscal Deficit 36

2.4 The Formation and Evolution of Government Debts Risk Caused by Fiscal Deficits 51

Chapter 3 Influence of Fiscal Deficit Risk 59

3.1 Influences on Capital and Growth of Economy 59

3.2 Income Distribution Effect of Fiscal Deficit Risk 75

3.3 The Transformation from Fiscal Deficit Risk to Financial Risk 77

3.4 Erosion of Fiscal Deficit Risk to Social Credit Relationship 84

3.5 Impacts of Fiscal Deficit Risk on Government's Prestige and Regulation Ability 88

Part Ⅱ The Formation and Influence of Chinese Fiscal Deficit Risk 91

Chapter 4 China's Fiscal Deficit and Formation Factors of Deficit Risk 93

4.1 The Evolution of China's Fiscal Deficits 93

4.2 The Formation Factors of Chinese Fiscal Deficit Risk at Present Stage 102

4.3 Analysis on Imperfect Fiscal Ethics 113

Chapter 5 Manifestation of Chinese Fiscal Deficit Risk 118

5.1 Evolution of Chinese Fiscal Deficit Risk in Different Periods 118

5.2 Debt Risk Caused by Fiscal Deficit at Present Stage 124

5.3 Inflation Risk of the Fiscal Deficit at Present 127

Chapter 6 Influence of Chinese Fiscal Deficit Risk 134

6.1 China's Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth 134

6.2 The Fiscal Deficit and Income Distribution in China 143

6.3 Influence of Fiscal Deficit Risk in Financial Field in China 149

6.4 The Impact of Fiscal Deficit Risk on Fiscal Vulnerability 152

Part Ⅲ Risk Management of Fiscal Deficit in China 161

Chapter 7 Discernment and Measurement of Fiscal Deficit Risk in China 163

7.1 The Omen of Serious Fiscal Deficit Risk 163

7.2 The Early Warning Index of Fiscal Deficit Risk 168

7.3 Discernment and Measurement of the China's Fiscal Deficit Risk 182

Chapter 8 Control of Fiscal Deficit Risk 187

8.1 General Principle of the Risk Control of Fiscal Deficit 187

8.2 The External Environment Control of China's Fiscal Deficit Risk 195

8.3 Prevention against Fiscal Deficit Risk in the Field of Public Finance 201

8.4 Controlling Contingent Liabilities and Implicit Liabilities in China 212

Reference 226